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Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project code 07-06-00277)

Development of models of socio-economic phenomena (family relationships, love, terrorism, education systems) using the methods of data mining
Разработка моделей социальных явлений (семейные отношения) с помощью методов интеллектуального анализа данных

(Supervisor - Dr. Sci., professor Abrukov VS, Department of Applied Mathematics, Physics and Information Technology)


The social systems belong to the class of super complex systems. They include various subsystems and units, and are characterizing by a lot of parameters that have a chaotic and dynamic character. Their development depends on interaction of the various internal and external factors. Therefore a creation of their models is accompanied always by large difficulties. From this point of view, the problem of development of methods of simulation of social systems on the basis of modern methods of the analysis of the chaotic distributed data is very actual. A family is example of a complex social system. A formation of family and a disintegration of family (divorce) are one of the most spread social phenomena. A family is considering as the most significant orb of life by both young and elder, both rich and poor people. Therefore research problems of the family relations are very important. In particular, the tasks of determination of conditions of formation a long-time ("happy") family, diagnostics of the existing family relations, determination of reasons of family crisis, development of ways of preventing of family crisis are very important. But now there are no scientifically justified quantitative criteria of determination of perspectives of the family future and diagnostics of an existing family, there are no multifactor quantitative models of the family relations. The complexity of the family relations, in which are interlaced psycho physiological, social, economic, etc forces, is a main reason. From this point of view, methods of Data Mining (DM) could be considered as perspective methods of simulation, because they allow simultaneously analyzing of both quantitative and quality data, allow gaining of multifactor calculating models. Earlier we have been used DM for development of calculating models for solution of inverse and direct problems of optics by means of incomplete data in particular by means of “one-point measurement”, for determination of temperature profiles in burning wave of propellants by means of measurement of burning rate, for a prediction of wave form on a free surface of fluid (a task of tsunami), for a creation of a model of automatic control system of boiler unit during transient processes, for a creation of a model of deflagration-to-detonation transition under various experiment conditions, for a creation of a model of prediction of regularities of energetic materials under various pressures and characteristics of composition. The purpose of the work is to make the first step for a development of methodological base and technologies of DM application at build-up of new models of social phenomena on an example of the analysis of the family relations. Other objects of research are: Love, Terrorism, Education systems, HR.

Our papers:
Family relationships: Abrukov-family-relations-2011.doc
Love: Abrukov-Love-2006.doc
Terrorism: Abrukov-terrorism-modelling-2006.doc
Education systems: Abrukov-education-system-2004.doc